Originally Posted by Bigdog1
Insurance companies claim about 90% of house fires start from gas appliances
Do they mean:
Given that you have a fire there's a 90% chance it started from a gas appliance?
Given that you have a gas appliance there's a 90% chance that it will start a fire?
These two conditional probabilities are seldom the same.
And, see what the gas appliance makers say about the cause of house fires. The truth may be in the middle somewhere, or nowhere near what either entity says.