For your chance of getting struck by lightning each year see

http://www.amazon.com/Risk-Practical.../dp/0618143726
unless some supreme being has it in for you.

The Decision Theory approach

http://www.amazon.com/Making-Decisio.../dp/0471908088
is to list all the possibilities and then assign a likelihood to each and they have to add to 100%. These change with new information, see

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem
Currently, my take is that the

*Plane crashed on water* outcome is less likely than

*Plane crashed on land in jungle* outcome and the plane can't still be flying so let's say

Plane crashed on land in jungle - 50

Plane crashed on water - 10

Plane landed somewhere OK - 40

or

Plane crashed on land in jungle - 55

Plane crashed on water - 5

Plane landed somewhere OK - 40

Also, Plane landed OK on water but then sunk and not one cell call got through. 2%?