Tesla Achilles Heel

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Economics will change when road tax is added in. At present EV owners are getting a freebie at the expense of others. I don't know how they will work that in.
 
According to KBB the average price of an EV is about $10,000 more than a ICE car. So based on your $80 a month that's 10.4 years based on fuel only. Maintenance is 30-50% less on an EV so there is savings there. Equipment like chargers and such are one time expenditures and could possibly ad value to a home. It's not automatic to assume you need a new panel. Average installation of a level 2 charger is around $2000 so that would add another couple years on the payback based solely on fuel savings. You could just use level 1 charging and save that cost though most people would not like the slow charging, but it's an option. There is no offset in the numbers for tax savings or incentives. If you have a solar or wind system it might save you a lot of money.
I think most people that are buying EVs are just as interested in reducing emissions as saving a buck. When you say EVs make zero sense that could apply on a pure economic basis today but assumes that there will be no improvement in costs over time. I bet when the automobile was first introduced it was considered only suitable for the rich. I bet it cost a lot more to operate than a horse. I bet it's still cheaper to operate a horse so maybe we should eliminate all automobiles. A lot of innovation starts more expensive than existing technology. If that was the litmus test for whether a new technology is good or bad we wouldn't have a lot of the things we have. Remember when a VHS player cost $600? It all has to start somewhere.

All that said I think the current administration is trying to make the transition from fossil fuels too quickly. You can't just flip a switch and make it so but in the long haul it will/has to happen.

Can you get a used Chevy Volt for $8K?... Yes. The replacement battery costs more than that. You can get a new EV for $40K, or a Tesla all the way up to $125K... Name one thing in common with ALL OF THE PEOPLE (Congress Mafia) that are pushing EV's... They are ALL Millionaires. Everybody shouting from the rooftops about "emissions" is PAID by lobbyists for all the industries they claim are Great for people.

The maintenance costs aren't necessarily less, either. Then there is the possibility someone would need a new battery for their Tesla, which is invoiced below... They are only warrantied for 8 years, and are they covered on used Teslas?

Why does the switch to electric have to happen? There is absolutely no reason for that, and the people preaching about it fly in private airplanes everywhere and drive Escalades. Don't mention the need is because of emissions, because they are against Nuclear also.

https://www.consumereducationcouncil.org/electric-vs-gas/
https://www.currentautomotive.com/how-much-does-a-tesla-model-3-battery-replacement-cost/
 
Economics will change when road tax is added in. At present EV owners are getting a freebie at the expense of others. I don't know how they will work that in.
Ohio is implementing a road tax for EVs and hybrids starting in July, $200 and $150 respectively. Most states are doing the same.
 
Ohio is implementing a road tax for EVs and hybrids starting in July, $200 and $150 respectively. Most states are doing the same.
Good idea but I heard that it's embattled.
 
I don’t know how many of you remember this guy Joe Newman he was around in the 80s and I just barely remembered him but hating late night TV these days I have been watching Pluto-TV reruns of Johnny Carson after the 11:00 news. A couple nights ago they replayed the show where Joe Newman was his guest. The next day I googled him to find out they made a movie about the guy and I watched it and then I searched more to find lots of scientific stuff of course disproving his claims of his motor being a perpetual motion machine. Then I find he still has a following and people are still building what they believe his motor was based around and are coming up with some interesting results.



I will include a link to the movie and also one of the DIY guys that are to this day still finding his ideas to be somewhat baffling. The movie is a little sad as the process of his invention is shown to how his belief in it finally ruined his life and somewhat lead to insanity before he died.



I just thought you folks might enjoy the movie as I did.







 
Back in the 40's they thought TV would never be adopted either. Too expensive, picture quality was bad, almost no programming but here we are with just about every home having multiple TVs. I think a lot of the comments on EVs assume a static world. Cars and batteries will never get better or cheaper. Gas will never cost more. No more charging stations will be built. I bet the same stuff was said about cars in the early 20th century. You had to haul gas because there were no gas stations. Range was poor, roads were bad. Nobody would waste money on one of those. They are the rich man's toy. But again here we are.
 
Good idea but I heard that it's embattled.
Of course it's a battle. EV owners thought they would save that money. They wear out roads same as any other car. I read states are already having funding issues just due to lost revenue from cars getting better milage. Use 1/2 the gas pay 1/2 the tax but still drive the same mileage. A bit of a conundrum.
 
The whole battle over getting rid of fossil fuels simply depends on the voters on the Left that only get their info from the Left. When they find out they are being lied to about everything, it ends.

Lets take the average out of touch Socialite lady in Los Angeles. When she finds out she won't be able to buy that $35000 designer purse to stuff her Poodle in because it's produced with *GASP* fossil fuels like virtually everything else, it will all end.
 
The achilles heel of electrical cars is still the battery. Unless there is a major major breakthrough in battery technology it's just more of the same.

Each battery cell is slightly larger than an AA cell.
The most popular battery pack supplied by Tesla contains 7,104 18650 cells in 16 444 cell modules capable of storing up to 85 kWh of energy. In 2015 Panasonic altered the anode design, increasing cell capacity by about 6%, enabling the battery packs to store up to 90 kWh of energy. More recently, Tesla engineers reconfigured the internals of the battery pack to hold 516 cells in each module for a total of 8,256 cells capable of storing a little more than 100 kWh of energy enabling the cars to enjoy a range of over 300 miles.​
 
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We had an electrical engineer I worked with that drove an 1890-1900 vintage EV to work every day winter and summer from his home to work about 5 miles each way until he retired. Top speed was under 20MPH and I would pass him most morning on my 30 mile commute. We had another engineer that built his own EV and drove it daily close to 20 miles each way. He made his from a vintage 60s Porsche. The only reason he gave up on his DIY EV was he found the car was worth a small fortune and he put it back to original.



In the late 60s the GE location I worked for had a secret project to build prototype EVs with an eye to mass producing them. We set up and built about 50 cars and sold them to the government. The project was called the QT project. They never went into production and it just died. About 10 years later we were building and selling EV lawn tractors.



None of this is relatively new and it is all based around economics. The problem I see is natural economics has not been cooperating so some in government like to help things along a little or a lot. Economics has never done well when forced to change. If the fishermen are hurting make a rule you can’t eat meat on Fridays and you sell 14% more fish. Drive gas prices to $10 per gallon EV will flourish is the mindset of some. It works but not without a lot of pain.



Before Tesla: Why everyone wanted an electric car in 1905
 
I don't know but some say the government by merely catering to the green movement created the incentives that made Elon Musk the wealthiest man ever to live on this planet.
 
I don't know but some say the government by merely catering to the green movement created the incentives that made Elon Musk the wealthiest man ever to live on this planet.
How many kazillionaires has the government created? I know its a lot. Look back over time and the most wealthy people generally have had some sort of government action or legislation that someone capitalized on afterward. Many of those changes came via lobbing. I bet it was even worse 100-150 years ago. I mean you can invent an electrical generation system but unless some government entity says we want to do that in our town and the tax payers will pay for it who else would have ever used one. It would have takes forever to be widely adapted. Tons of government funded R&D was paid for by the taxpayer and was eventually handed off to the private sector to make a bunch of money with. The government is always catering to someone or cause. I suppose that is a role they should pay. Things that take monumental capital to get started are quite often funded by the government. No TVA and some parts of Appalachia are probably still without electricity. Would a private company have built the Hoover dam? Not back in the 30's I bet. Private business seems to always be at odds with the government but they sure make a lot of money from them.
 
We are lucky we have the Hoover Dam because I personally don’t think it would be possible to build it today. There are a lot of things I don’t think would happen today that are similar. It might not have been pretty but they got things done back then. Look up the LA Aqueduct designed and built by Mulholland opened in 1913. IMO one of the great achievements of all time. Not as well know a project as the Panama Cannel.

I think Ayn Rand had it pegged in 1957 in her book Atlas Shrugged. A great read if anyone still reads novels.
 
Interestingly, musk saw the light, and took a leap of faith. During tesla's development he built and org. dedicated to solving some of the eng. nightmares that the nasa program, wasn't. devised the systems, proposed them, was awarded $ for R&D, and was off to the races.

However, I have some ?. Given the latest speculation, that we will destroy ourselves, in the next 10yrs, how soon will musk have a livable society, on Mars?
 
We are lucky we have the Hoover Dam because I personally don’t think it would be possible to build it today. There are a lot of things I don’t think would happen today that are similar. It might not have been pretty but they got things done back then. Look up the LA Aqueduct designed and built by Mulholland opened in 1913. IMO one of the great achievements of all time. Not as well know a project as the Panama Cannel.

I think Ayn Rand had it pegged in 1957 in her book Atlas Shrugged. A great read if anyone still reads novels.

AND, who is John Gault?
 
We are lucky we have the Hoover Dam because I personally don’t think it would be possible to build it today. There are a lot of things I don’t think would happen today that are similar. It might not have been pretty but they got things done back then. Look up the LA Aqueduct designed and built by Mulholland opened in 1913. IMO one of the great achievements of all time. Not as well know a project as the Panama Cannel.

I think Ayn Rand had it pegged in 1957 in her book Atlas Shrugged. A great read if anyone still reads novels.
Unfortunately all true. The environmental reviews would take a decade or more for something like it. The other unfortunate thing is we've drawn too much water from the dam and the snow pack isn't refilling Lake Meade fast enough.

EVs don't solve the problem, they shift it. That said, they will be the future, CAFE standards won't allow manufacturers to ignore going EV for the majority of their fleet and most are heading that way. The impact to the grid won't be as bad as many think because few people will be charging from zero every day. The bigger problem is all the mining for rare earth metals and lithium to make the batteries. Mining is a really "green" activity, or NOT.
 
Unfortunately all true. The environmental reviews would take a decade or more for something like it. The other unfortunate thing is we've drawn too much water from the dam and the snow pack isn't refilling Lake Meade fast enough.

EVs don't solve the problem, they shift it. That said, they will be the future, CAFE standards won't allow manufacturers to ignore going EV for the majority of their fleet and most are heading that way. The impact to the grid won't be as bad as many think because few people will be charging from zero every day. The bigger problem is all the mining for rare earth metals and lithium to make the batteries. Mining is a really "green" activity, or NOT.
It is pretty simple to calculate if we know the oil consumption for the country per year and we then compare energy to energy. Someone smarter than me could come fairly close in approximation the demand on the grid. Just like I don’t fill my tank every day I wouldn’t expect to do a full charge every day. The 2 of us use about 20 gallons of fuel a week or about a 1000 gallons per year at today’s prices say we are spending $4000 per year or $333 / month. If apples = oranges and I know they don’t but if they did raising my electric bill by 333 would more than double my electric consumption. If the whole country doubled their consumption would the grid take it and more so what fuels would need to be used to make the extra electric?



I haven’t heard the magic target price for gas to make the switch to EV payback the cost of the EV etc. Once they hit that mark and factor in new taxes etc they should be selling like hot cakes.

Maybe what I should do is set up a wood fired electric generation mini plant just to supply my home and car with power and the waste heat I can use to heat my home also. Firewood is abundant here so no problem there. Now if I get about 150M others to do the same we would be all set.
 
They also need to solve the recycling, because as it stands, windmills have a neg. P&L when calculated from cost of implementing, too waste, and as it is, only WA has a program for solar, which would put the onice upon the suppliers, for those defunct panels.
 
It is pretty simple to calculate if we know the oil consumption for the country per year and we then compare energy to energy. Someone smarter than me could come fairly close in approximation the demand on the grid. Just like I don’t fill my tank every day I wouldn’t expect to do a full charge every day. The 2 of us use about 20 gallons of fuel a week or about a 1000 gallons per year at today’s prices say we are spending $4000 per year or $333 / month. If apples = oranges and I know they don’t but if they did raising my electric bill by 333 would more than double my electric consumption. If the whole country doubled their consumption would the grid take it and more so what fuels would need to be used to make the extra electric?



I haven’t heard the magic target price for gas to make the switch to EV payback the cost of the EV etc. Once they hit that mark and factor in new taxes etc they should be selling like hot cakes.

Maybe what I should do is set up a wood fired electric generation mini plant just to supply my home and car with power and the waste heat I can use to heat my home also. Firewood is abundant here so no problem there. Now if I get about 150M others to do the same we would be all set.
That's a good way to look at it I guess. Somewhere out there is the line where it makes sense and where it doesn't. I believe we're going there regardless, I mean there is so much oil then that's it and the harder it gets to extract it the more it tilts the table. I don't know when oil is more valuable for other things beside fuel but it seems like it could happen. It'll be way beyond my years but I think about what I leave behind. The bottom line to me is there are folks that think it's going to happen overnight and it's not. I do think there is growing interest in nuclear again.
 
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